ARKK no longer is highly correlated with OMER.
It is a more volatile NASDAQ, with the same trend wiggles.

OMER is just acting weak and ignored, with a steady bleed of sellers who give up holding it while its life oozes out of it.
It is not that hoards are selling and running.
It is more that there seems to be few buyers who think that they need to be aggressive.
Look at the low volume in the hourly chart.

I suppose nobody expects anything from ISPY anytime soon, so they are not loading up.
In the Meeting, Greg did say that he was told the ISPY trial would be complete (or did he mean fully enrolled?) in "the summer".

Summer starts next week.... and he was told that, apparently, at the beginning of the trial. If the results were good from the end of the second week (which is what happened in past treatment data) and the rate of patient accrual was increased according to the protocol, there could be enough patients tested already to show significant improvement on one or more important endpoints.

How many patients is an unknown.
How many significant endpoint are needed is also an unknown... as are the data (other than rumor).

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Striking + 5.5% price upswing for OMER on this 1st day of a new quarter. Heaviest volume peaking at the close.



The trading was VERY ODD today

Note the volume spikes.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



16k shares and down 41 cents.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



100k shares borrowed short this morning... looks like most is being used to push OMER down today, almost single handedly trying to underline that traders should fade every rise.

I hope the SOB chokes on his short because of good news on Tues.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Bought back into OMER today @ 14.86.  Will add more if it drops to 14 or so, which is likely since I have re-entered the fray.



Now we know who to blame, Jim.

As a preview of Part 2, my calculations using the speed of recovery in the CUP, where the average patient was considerably sicker, about 120 of the 125 patient maximum enrollment should have ALREADY have been discharged and probably nobody died (because I am assuming that ISPY is adding new patients NOT adding patient who have been in the hospital and intubated for more than a week before treatment.

Logic says we hear this month... although in the real world, as we know, logic doesn't rule when humans are involved.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



so is the graph in post 3 live? i notice it reflects today's pricing, not yesterday's bizarre swing.



Yes, it refers back to the site and what the current period has.
That website doesn't store prior day's charts with users'settings.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



OMER price against SPY, hot stocks ARKK, CNDY failed CV19 Pump stock and 2 biotech etfs XBI (larger companies) and IBB (NASDAQ Biotech, which includes Omeros)

Year to date

3 months

1 month

2 weeks (minus the holiday Monday)

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



What does those charts tell you?
If you are patiently holding Omeros you already know it is painful, but it has not declined since the beginning of the year.

Of course, the SPY (S&P500) hit an all-time high again today.

The Glamour Stocks & Bitcoin in ARKK has not made money this year, yet, but it is back in an uptrend.

CYDY never deserved to be as high as it is now. It is a scamming OTC company and recently, the price moves make it Omeros' peer.... unlike the Biotech indexes, which track each other and are a slightly positive influence on Omeros because IBB and those funds that track IBB buy/sell OMER shares many times a day. So a positive return for a period for IBB means that without any other buys/sell Omeros would track the ETF. IOW to get the purely OMER sentiment in the buying and selling, subtract the gain/loss on IBB from that on OMER. IOW, if OMER is up 1% and IBB is up 2%, it means that non-ETF market activity in Omeros was a loss of 1% (in relative terms).

Since June 25th, Omeros has done worse than all of the comparators, even CYDY.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



The blood-letting continues.
Shareholders have been suffering since late February.

Here are the only 2 Press Releases from Omeros during the time the stock turned negative:
Mar 01, 2021    Omeros Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2020 Financial Results
Feb 25, 2021    Omeros Corporation to Announce Fourth Quarter and Year-End Financial Results on March 1, 2021

The decline continued despite the company announcing dosing in the I-SPY trial in late March
Mar 23, 2021    Omeros and Quantum Leap Announce First Patients Dosed with Narsoplimab in the I-SPY COVID-19 Trial
Of course, the stock plunged when the delay to the BLA PDUFA was announced
May 20, 2021    Omeros Announces Extension of FDA Review Period for Narsoplimab in HSCT-TMA

And it continued despite the release of the data on treatment of more severely ill Covid-19 patients.
May 28, 2021    Omeros Announces Preliminary Results from Additional Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Treated with Narsoplimab

It is apparent that the market gives no credibility, no valuation, to the ability of Omeros to get narsoplimab approved to be used to treat CV19 patients.

What else has been announced that could move the needle and stop the decline since May?

Jun 09, 2021    Omeros Announces Preliminary Results from Phase 1 Clinical Trial of OMS906

Only a Phase 1 trial, so that almost never moves the needle unless the company that announced this is a Market favorite, and Omeros is the poster child for not being a market favorite.

Jun 10, 2021    Omeros Announces Publication Detailing the Mechanism of Action of PDE7 In Nicotine Addiction

Again, this is only a Phase 1 trial and no value is given by any analyst for the potential revenue to come from the eventual approval of OMS527 in addictive behaviors, because Omeros has
- never promoted it
- never had the money to advance it quickly
- has other priorities
- refuses to do a deal to jump start the program with a partner
- never hinted it would try to monetize if by selling it

There has been no news to stop the decline.
There has been no attempt by Omeros to somehow get more things going, or convince the market there are monetization opportunities ahead.
There hasn't even been more Phase 2 projects for narsoplimab, most likely because the company needs even more narso supply if it ever hopes to supply the Critical Care CV19 market, should it be successful in getting a EUA within the next 6 months to a year.

Meanwhile, the delayed PDUFA is costing the company at least $15 million in administrative costs because it geared up for narso approval 3 months early... and now the revenue will start, we presume (the shorts don't) 3 month later. 

What can stop the bleeding before the October PDUFA date?

- For normal companies, increased buying ahead of a PDUFA often increases the share price, so perhaps that will kick in in late August or in September. Of course, the share price could decline a buck or more so that the eventual pre-PDUFA only brings the price back to $15-$17. And then we cannot predict whether profit taking after a positive PDUFA decision will lead to profit-taking or, finally, buying. Given Omeros history, expecting the most likely is to expect a rally that will be cut short by profit-taking and shorting....

The positive-case scenario probably requires some excellent analyst upgrades and higher price targets, perhaps along with Initiation Of Coverage by JPM.

- The I-SPY trial results could be very positive and announced.
This alone may do nothing at all, if Omeros doesn't announce an intention to get a EUA ASAP.
It could also be a bust if I-SPY (or Omeros) announces the results on I-SPY Primary and Secondary Endpoints, without other data and/or commentary asserting that the results show that narsoplimab is the best treatment for severely-ill CV19 patients. Remember, the I-SPY Endpoints are not the optimal ones for narsoplimab, as I explained in my latest article, which has 500 hits since published on July 7th. 

A positive market reaction to I-SPY data can be ruined by a modest and dry scientific PR. I can be enhanced with the right PR and a commitment to submit ASAP for a EUA, preferably with a time-line that indicates
- they have been preparing the EUA all along
- the I-SPY and CUP data are already processed
- they are not going to spend months and months triple checking everything
- that FDA wants to expedite this to save lives ASAP
- they have enough narso to provide treatment to save the lives of patients

When will the I-SPY results happen?
Will Omeros break with their pattern and do something that will get the Market excited?
Will Omeros have Cantor use the ATM and hurt any substantive move higher for the share price?

If so, then it will POTENTIALLY be up to the
- possibility of a large revenue increase announced for Omidria in the August Q2 report.
- the eventual announcement of the narsoplimab pricing for HSCT-TMA
- the eventual significant increase in revenue from HSCT, which will almost surely not come during Q4'21, which only would be announced in March 2022, unless Omeros starts giving revenue estimates/guidance and data out more frequently and freely than they have recently.
- Q1'22 could be the big revenue boost, and that is only reported officially in May 2022. That is 10 months from now.

All of this can be derailled by a careless and/or inept and/or desperate-looking use of the ATM to raise money and/or by another share and/or Notes issue instead of using the ATM. 

This can be turned around, with the share price moving up smartly by some unexpected positive development(s), like
- a deal with the Govt. to buy Narso for CV19 and/or manufacturing help by the Govt. to provide narso supply
- 1 or more partnerships or JVs for 1 or more pipeline drugs or GPCRs, which bring in money
- sale of Omidria the eliminates the money problem, for good

Disaster follows failure of the FDA to approve narsoplimab for HSCT-TMA and/or I-SPY ending the narso trial arm for "futility"... both low probability, but you never should be 100% confident when you have no control over outcomes.

There are a number of ways to contend with what is going to happen to the share price, of course. It runs the gamut from being so confident that you do not look at the share price for 5 years... to selling everything now and never looking at Omeros again.

I am confident that Greg believes that, if he makes fundamental progress, the Market will eventually recognize it.
Looking at the share price, he has little stock price data to point to as justification for this, in the Omeros history, compared to his peers. For years he's been urged to do more market-friendly things but has not gone far enough to succeed. This is not an opinion as much as something illustrated by the chart above... although a longer chart is useful about now:


There has been no sustained progress since 2014.

But there has been numerous trading opportunities that therefore explain why people buy around $10 to $15 and sell around $20-$25, thereby capping every advance. And the way Omeros chooses to run its business, with
- no partnerships that speed progress on secondary pipeline candidates
- too frequent, too small money raises
- too clever/foolish (convertible Notes and Capped calls) money-raising that encourages shorting and/or takes quick advantage of a rare piece of good news, helping the traders and shorts to knock down every price rise to date in the last 7 years.
- As much as I like modesty, science, and not being overly promotional, when I see the price rises on companies that successfully leveraged work on CV19 to get much higher share prices for months, which gave them the ability to raise money at much higher prices, I have to rate the Omeros effort of news suppression and modesty to be a significant failure... so far. This failure has resulted in ZERO extra valuation for CV19 in the share price, anyway. And the missed opportunity to raise lots of cash at high valuation has exacerbated much of the company's other problems with the lack of cash to advance the pipeline and convince investors that yet another money raise will not make the stock plunge another few dollars, again.

I'd like to have Greg respond to my commentary and tell me where I am wrong.
I don't want to hear it was the right thing to do this or that.
I'd like to hear how/if he'd change what he did, or did not do, now that he has seen how things have turned out since 2014.

I'd then want to hear, how, in the light of this, he is changing what he does going forward.

I wonder if he learned something about over-pricing Omidria, and thereby giving up the market outside the US and not having enough market penetration. Did he learn that it is more profitable going with high prices and lower volume?
Because this seems like a similar trade-off for narso if it is used for HSCT and CV19 (and hopefully IgAN).

If I am to continue with TIPS I need more feedback.

Do you agree? Are you considering how to play this?
What would you like to know?
What do you think I am wrong about.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Good article and I think in hindsight we can see that Greg hasn't managed Omeros while in terms of stockholder equity.  I'm unsure about what strategy Omeros should do but I think the upcoming ISPY and FDA approval for Narso are critical for the company in the near to medium term.  I think if either of those are bad news it will be terrible news for the stock price.   At this point Greg has been pretty coy and likes to play his cards close to his hands.  Perhaps reading a long and as much as objective email like this will make him reflect on his management style and decision he will make in the future.  While I have a large position in Omeros it is not so large that I can't ride out a near terms news that is not good.  Greg's management style and the past price action has what has deterred me from increasing my Omeros position.  Omeros over the past few years is the only dog in my portfolio with the rest of my portfolio having done very well.   I have trade Omeros in the past and I'm tempted to do it again if circumstances warrant themselves.



I can’t disagree with your assessment above, Alan. This price activity is very very discouraging. Greg is not looking very good at this point in time. But what else is new- and this is the point. But I have to think that there will be forthcoming good news re fundamentals, therefore I have to continue to hold my shares and wait. I have no advance plan as to how to handle a price rise due to good fundamental news. If/when that happens I will see what happens and try to make a good decision as to how to handle my shares given the new developments.



Good posting, Alan, and appropriate for delivery to Greg. It's accurate and even-handed, highlighting (lowlighting?) OMER's chronic sparse/blah PR efforts.



Thanks for the comments, fellas.
I am interested that you think it is even-handed, Bill.
None of you disputes the argument and Larry underlines that the comments are much easier in hindsight.
I agree with that, although I have to add:

I critiqued at least some of this when it happened. I have written pieces for you about the pricing and market penetration of Omidria, why doctors were against the price, why there cannot be European sales... I hated most of the fund raising, especially convertible notes and the Calls.

I also wrote long pieces about how Omeros will not have the money to adequately develop GPR174i, acting alone and that using a big partner to get 50 to 100 indications rather than OMER developing them 1 by one would return more money... and the same can be said about 527.

In fact, none of my points are new, with the newest just being how the market performance illustrates the level of success or failure of Omeros public relations about what it does and does not do, and how it explains it, or hides it. Certainly it is much more difficult for Management because they can't just talk about getting a partner. They have to do it and maybe nobody wants 174i until there is proof it works and doesn't kill the patients. So some of our disappointment is not Managements' fault.

I think we are all in favor Management goals of not increasing the share count unnecessarily....
but doing it little by little and deterring the share PRICE from rising, is obviously a failure.

If there was 20% more shares and the share price steadily climbed to the $25 area and stayed in that area, few would complain so much. And if the share price was at $25 (which is still cheap) I would be less unhappy that Greg just got 550,000 options (with the other top people getting 75000 each). Of course, getting all those options priced at $14.99, gives management more motivation to get the share price higher...by some day perhaps as long in the future as 10 years from now, when the options expire.

Where is the reluctance to increase the share count there? And with a share price under $15, what achievements justify that many options on top of $1.5M salary and perks?

I know the answer... To Be Competitive: All the other companies judge management on what they do to achieve interim goals that may have no effect on the share price. They ignore the share price (the management doesn't want earning dependent on the Market price. Nor do they want to wait to get options when they achieve ACTUAL success in the goals of the company: approval and marketing of successful drugs. If Greg deserves 550k options for what he's accomplished lately, how much will he deserve if narso is approved for HSCT and gets a EUA?
5 million options? more?

Meanwhile, if the market cap was $3B instead of $890M, we would have to judge management as being successful. Our complains would be akin to wanting perfection. At $3B the company value would be a bit comparable to its peers: ~$50/share.

Meanwhile the Capped call is at about $19 and is capped at about $29/share... so far that means the option is losing time value. Who was it that thought OMER should raise money to purchase a capped call? I've already told Greg what I think of that and issuing convertible notes...twice. I am pretty sure Greg did not want to issue them the second time, but the Underwriters did and he couldn't afford to piss them off.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Well then, as to stock price, Greg has dug himself, and us, into a hole. Something needs to change.



It all can change with all/most of the large broker analysts rating Omeros more positively with a much higher target price.
But they are not going to do that unless/until OMER provides concrete accomplishments like

- higher Omidria revenue
- I-SPY Success
- EUA application
- Approval of narso for HSCT   

The word I hear from someone with Ibank contacts is that Omeros needs to accomplish something concrete before they upgrade.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



I can’t find fault with that, actually. We think we see the potential- the analysts want to see the proof. I can understand that.



Here is where you can get a reading on how many shares are available for a short to borrow in order to legally sell short:


Recently the shares available to borrow has spiked.
This could mean that investors bought new shares and made them available, or that existing shorts covered and the shares underlying those are now once again available to be used to short.

But the share price is pretty low so why short here?
Makes more sense to cover, if not now, soon, and definitely before an ISPY announcement.
More definitely before narso approval.

The low cost of borrowing shares reflects the demand for borrowing from the shorts. Even with a million shares available the cost of borrowing is low.

Remember, OMER has about 12M shares short and about half are related to the Convertible Notes, with the shorts acting as a hedge. The higher the price of OMER the less hedging the Note holders tend to do (because less price-protection is needed).

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Well ....... well ....... well .......

OMER finally closed negative YTD.

Buy the dip?




There has to be technical support somewhere near here (said the guy trying to catch a falling knife), Stockta.com says support is at 14.05.  I will probably add a little bit more on a drop below $14.

23 (edited by Alan Robert Ross 2021-07-13 20:28:51)


I don't need to draw lines to see that $14 is support/resistance, just in the past 12 months.


It moved above $14 after  few tries and bounced off it.
It gapped up to just over it (and it looks like the gap is not filled from Dec. 2020.

In 2020 the stock had trouble staying over 14 and then bounced off that level from above, repeatedly.


I seem to recall the money raise following the too-brief CV19 spike was also at $14ish.

The nearest know catalyst for a change of trend is the Q2 10Q report due the early part of August. Maybe Thurs. 5th or the 9th, or 10th.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



VERY low volume continues
minute chart will refresh ever time you reload it. 15 min. delay

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



I agree with your summary of price prospects above and in general with others' comments. To your comment in post #16:

"But they are not going to do that unless/until OMER provides concrete accomplishments like

- higher Omidria revenue
- I-SPY Success
- EUA application
- Approval of narso for HSCT"

I would add, - a deal/partnership with another company that would bring in a bundle of cash.



Addition gladly accepted, Vern!

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



I know it is not much of a compensation for those of us watching the daily Omeros losses accumulate, now down MORE  than $10 since the $24 peak earlier this year....

But I refer you to the recent granting of stock options.
75,000 to 2 of the management
550,000 to Greg
and an unknown amount to other staff members via the Incentive Option Plan

Management seems to like to make these awards when the share price is low, because the share price at the close on the data of the grant is normally the strike price of the option.

When the most recent grants were made... last week (as I recall), the strike price was the disgustingly low $14.99.

At the moment the price is $13.73 and weak.
There is no end in sight, barring something unexpected, until the Q2'21 Earnings Report.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Bought more at 13.74. 

Maybe a technical analysis mistake given the straight down trajectory, but I am in this for the long run since at this pace it will be my heirs who enjoy the fruits of OMER.



I am sure we all hope your OMER make you much wealthier by the end of next week.
Best of luck!

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



Jumped to 13.86 after hours…..on 8 shares traded.  Whoopee.



We closed with a small gain today.
The last time that happened was last Thursday, about $1 higher.

Tomorrow is options expiration for July.

NOT ONE call traded today.
Only 64 Puts, total, traded for strike $14, 15 and 16 (about 20 contracts each).

Only 62 calls and 78 puts traded for Aug.

The only interesting one was 70 $14put contracts at $1.33
An interesting bet on the earnings perhaps.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

32 (edited by Alan Robert Ross 2021-07-16 10:14:32)


The stock price has, I hope, reversed its down trend.
You (or at least I) presumably would want to know why.

There are 3 potential reasons:

1 of which is the looming release of ISPY results.
Greg has been so shy about touting narso for covid, would he EVER agree to go into a Trial he could not control, affiliated with various US Govt. agencies, including FDA, Barda, etc., without being 99% sure narso would succeed? And without an agreement that allows him input on anything in a ISPY press release about narso?

Keep in mind that Quantum Leap knows that companies do not want to provide drugs to third parties and then have that 3rd party say publicly that their drug is no good. ISPY bends over backwards to say good things, even about drugs that are terminated.

2. is the Q2 earnings report due within the first 7 days of AUGUST (so IMO on Monday the 9th or Thurs. the 5th)

3. is the coming issuance of the CMS OPPS 2022 Proposed Rules that will be published, probably, late next week. This long document may be significant for what it DOES NOT say... which is anything about Omidria. This would signal that Omidria reimbursement is essentially PERMANENT SEPARATE reimbursement (at least as long as opioids are a problem in the USA, which means IMO Permanent. Drug abuse is NOT going away.
And drugs that reduce inflammation and pain should be reimbursed.

In fact, there has been a strong push on the GROWING opioid abuse problem during the pandemic and more sponsors have signed up for NOPAIN. Passing NOPAIN, probably by incorporating it in another Bill, will guarantee reimbursement for 5 years and include both ASCs and Hospital.

When Greg mentioned it would cover Hospitals, earlier this year, he did so to indicate this would be a significant extension. IOW, Hospital surgery is currently not covered and this is one of the reasons why Omidria sells poorer than it should. Recent CMS information I have seen suggests the number of lens replacement being done in hospitals is increasing, so getting reimbursements there could potentially double sales over time (assuming my read of this issue is correct).
Is this perhaps the reason Greg is bullish on Omidria?
Is this why it would have been foolish to sell Omidria to another Pharma before this reimbursement had been secured?

Yearly revenue between $100M and $150M might bring in $750 million ($600M to $900M) but double that if the revenue jumps to a level of $200M to $300M.

Ironic, after today's price increase (so far), Market Cap is $877M.
Narsoplimab is free at current prices at current levels of Omidria sales, as long as it does not lose reimbursement in the coming OPPS 2022 Rule publication.... something close to impossible given the publicity about Opioid Abuse.

NOTE that I have already written earlier that, today, I expect a close at or close to $14.00 because of option expiration.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.



I suggest you follow what happens to this stock now that it got a surprisingly early approval after having the date of its PDUFA extended, for the same kind of FDA action as Omeros.

http://www.trustintelligence.com/viewto … 8076#p8076

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.