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Topic: Best Solution is NOT Get It

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkVBp6DWoAYkcys?format=jpg&name=medium

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EndV7m4XMAIw4Qi?format=jpg&name=small

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

CASES IN GERMANY HAVE TRIPLED IN 2 MONTHS:
and they are loosening restrictions.
Alan Robert Poss, Ph.D.
Trust Intelligence
11/24/2020

I read a notice that Germany, where some people are demonstrating against Pandemic rules, has decided to LOOSEN RULES for the Holidays, essentially guaranteeing another surge. I therefore went to my data base to see how well or poorly Germany has done in the last 2 months.

I present to you the data from the last 2 months of Mondays for Germany.

GERMANY   
Rank..Date....Tot.Cases..New Cases..Tot.Dead..New Deaths
23    10/05/20    304657      3086      9616      14
22    10/12/20    331094      4803      9721      19
18    10/19/20    373731      6750      9899      33
17    10/26/20    450258    12621    10182      44
15    11/02/20    560586    16240    10734    112
15    11/09/20    688972    16465    11657    152
13    11/16/20    817526    14582    12891    199
13    11/23/20    946648    14537    14583    240

Note an increase of over 500,000 cases in the 2 months, with the case count more than tripling. The fatality count has increased by "only" 50%.

Germany certainly lost control in late October, but they MAY be regaining it (at a much more deadly level), given that deaths lag new cases, everywhere, because the virus takes time to kill.  While the new case daily totals look like they are stabilizing, relaxing the restrictions on the size of gatherings and not discouraging activities that increase person-to-person contacts, they will have to rely on luck to avoid an increase in cases and fatalities. The authorities surely know this.

You reap what you sow.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpKR3nNXUAAcf0B?format=png&name=medium

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

A very intelligent and generous relative of one of the veteran Trust Intelligence contributors allowed me to share this with the general public.

It might surprise you.......
*********************************
"How can something with 1% mortality rate shut down the United States?

There are two significant problems inherent in this question:
Primarily, it neglects the flaw of using percentages with very large numbers and secondly assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you are unscathed.

The US population is ~330 Million . If one percent of the population dies, that is 3 million people dead. A couple additional million people dying would put a serious monkey wrench in the economy, no matter what. Three million would double the number of natural deaths.

A more important detail is that people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths.

What If Only One Percent Die! Just one percent. One is a small number! No Big Deal, right?

What about the people who survive? Based on current data, for every one person who dies:
• 19 require hospitalization.
• 18 have permanent heart damage.
• 10 have permanent lung damage.
• 3 have strokes.
• 2 have neurological damage that can lead to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
• 2 have neurological damage that can lead to loss of cognitive function

So now all of a sudden, that "it's only 1% fatal", becomes (based on USA census datum 330.7 million):
•   3,307,000 dead
• 66,140,000 hospitalized
• 62,833,000 heart damage
• 33,070,000 lung damage
•   9,921,000 strokes
•   6,614,000 muscle weakness
•   6,614,000 neurological damage

The current USA deaths attributed to COVID-19 is greater than 300 Thousand persons. Even if you believe that some of those deaths are fake news, the loss of life is considerably greater than any seasonal influenza.

Another sentient fact is that we are coming up on the anniversary of the earliest estimates of the SARS-coV-2 outbreak. A reasonable estimate of the number of people in the USA who have been exposed is approximately 10% which means herd immunity by viral infection is far off.

My observation is that before you assume that the risk is minimal and that going about your life as usual is fine, hard science says otherwise, and maybe you should rethink your decision. If you choose not to get vaccinated, make sure you consider the ones you love in your analysis. Thanks for reading."

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqR4idSXYAAS52A?format=jpg&name=medium

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

TOPIC: CV19 virus characteristics, mutations, spread

This mathematician's thread on Twitter explains (regrettably) why greater transmissibility can be worse for health than a greater chance to die (fatality rate).
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/stat … 81986?s=19
****************************
Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski

Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread.

As an example, suppose current R=1.1, infection fatality risk is 0.8%, generation time is 6 days, and 10k people infected (plausible for many European cities recently). So we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x 0.8% = 129 eventual new fatalities after a month of spread.

What happens if fatality risk increases by 50%? By above, we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x (0.8% x 1.5) = 193 new fatalities.

Now suppose transmissibility increases by 50%. By above, we'd expect 10000 x (1.1 x 1.5)^5 x 0.8% = 978 eventual new fatalities after a month of spread.

The above is just an illustrative example, but the key message: an increase in something that grows exponentially (i.e. transmission) can have far more effect than the same proportional increase in something that just scales an outcome (i.e. severity).

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

With all the holidays, the normal reports, like the number of new cases and daily deaths, look like the trend is turning back down, but if you look at the number of potential fatalities, which is the number of serious cases, the trend continues to climb even thought the number of new cases is officially declining. This is bad because the available intensive care and beds and staff to take case of severely ill patients are in short supply.

7-DAY RUNNING DAILY TREND NUMBERS
DATE NEW CASES SERIOUS CASES
12/01/20    154,327    24,787
12/02/20    157,545    25,078
12/03/20    173,628    25,335
12/04/20    183,808    25,576
12/05/20    193,153    25,807
12/06/20    198,249    26,039
12/07/20    203,567    26,203
12/08/20    206,987    26,366
12/09/20    210,094    26,495
12/10/20    209,685    26,660
12/11/20    211,293    26,828
12/12/20    212,937    27,008
12/13/20    214,943    27,174
12/14/20    214,922    27,375
12/15/20    214,008    27,582
12/16/20    217,366    27,757
12/17/20    219,252    27,879
12/18/20    220,416    27,978
12/19/20    216,005    28,040
12/20/20    215,336    28,096
12/21/20    215,545    28,125
12/22/20    215,168    28,138
12/23/20    212,833    28,195
12/24/20    207,411    28,277
12/25/20    185,148    28,368
12/26/20    181,033    28,456
12/27/20    173,106    28,552
12/28/20    171,308    28,673
12/29/20    170,705    28,778
12/30/20    171,020    28,862
12/31/20    176,075    28,924
01/01/21    185,675    29,032
01/02/21    195,907    29,129

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenbro … asons-why/

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: Best Solution is NOT Get It

Treating sequelae will be a huge task, with many patients, even ones who did not have severe CV19, over a long time period.

https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_292728494.jpg

{h/t to Stellar Capital for tweets}

Best solution is not to get it.
But if you do, you may need a safe and effective TREATMENT.

It is not just whether the virus kills you when you first get infected, it is also whether the effect of even mild cases make you chronically ill for months and years.

LONG COVID: Long Covid: ‘It’s a year since I’ve felt like myself’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 … hs-clinics

{h/t cap2020}

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.