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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Thanks Alan.  As you know I and probably all of us here have long suspected organized shorting of our stock.  It's not just regular traders.  It's an organized force.  Since it's been going on for so long, I have come to think that I simply need to accept this fact of life, as reality, and that in the end the worth and value of Omeros stock by virtue of their drugs will overcome the shorts.  If there would ever be something that could be brought to light, particularly via legal means, that would be one of the happiest days of my life.  But I'm not counting on that ever happening.  I think it's just OMER fundamentals that will have to do the job.  But who knows what will happen....

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

from the IV Board
******************************
Shorts are not in a hurry to leave. Yesterday to keep the share price down they shorted 1,342,217 shares, 27% of all traded shares.

https://fintel.io/ss/us/omer

Market Date       Short Volume        Total Volume        Short Volume Ratio
2020-12-03    1,342,217    4,937,200        27.19

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

One guy on IV wrote this

"Well if you keep selling every time OMER pops you may as well join the shorts, as you are doing their work for them. Why would they have to cover? Selling keeps the price down, and if you are selling, you are keeping the pice down. If you are in OMER for the long term, don't sell, show some conviction, put some pressure on the shorts. Its really that simple."
"Hey all you mopes..... Stop selling!!"

And a Trader wrote the following

"Well if you keep selling every time OMER pops you may as well join the shorts, as you are doing their work for them. Why would they have to cover? Selling keeps the price down, and if you are selling, you are keeping the pice down. If you are in OMER for the long term, don't sell, show some conviction, put some pressure on the shorts. Its really that simple."

"Hey all you mopes..... Stop selling!!"

Uli, a confession:  I'm a mope. I believe that the market accurately values equities.  Look at the stock price movement for OMER.  Look at the pricing of the last offering.  OMER is currently a $15 stock that sometimes sells for $10 and sometimes sells for $20.  Reversion to the mean is a wonderful thing.  Confidently embrace it.  Buy some trading shares on blue light special days.  Sell some trading shares on days of euphoria.  Get paid for your time spent closely following OMER.  I spend less time and money on OMER and make more money on it than any stock in my portfolio.  Even though ACAD has been on a tear of late, it can't compete with my cash cow, OMER.  I hold some long OMER shares, some long pattern trade shares (looking for moves of $8-$10), and some very short pattern trade shares (looking for $0.30-$2 moves).  Over the past 2 months I made $17K buying and selling the same 2K shares of OMER on a short pattern trade (there were 2 exceptions on that run where I bought a second 2K lot and sold 4K instead of 2K shares).  I put in a buy limit order or a sell limit order (a couple of times both) every morning before I go to work.  I check in at lunch to see what happened and adjust the order or put in an opposite order if I had a fill.  I check in again a few minutes before market close if I don't have something else going on. Most of the time I had $20K-$24K in play on that short term pattern trade which netted $17K in profit over 2 months.  I only actively work that short term pattern trade when we are below the perceived value of the stock.  I won't be working the short term pattern trade when we go over $14.50, but I think I've still got several round trips left.  My retirement account does not allow me to short an individual equity, but if it did I could add that tool to my wheel house when we were above the perceived value (holding the long shares eliminates all of the risk in shorting the stock).  There is no possible short squeeze here.  Most of the shorts are also longs and own a lot more shares than all of us combined on this message board.

I'd like to see this person get wiped out, but he won't and is like many who own Omeros... although when he says that the Market is an accurate barometer of value, I can't help but think he is a fool. The Market determines PRICE. "Value" is a different work for a reason. Perhaps if forced to actually use words according to their standard meaning, he would not dispute my point.

In fact, I do not oppose a bit of trading around long term positions. I do object to those who believe their cleverness in trading a stock like Omeros is not counterproductive for the company, for when the share price will break out higher, and for the many people who will DIE because the lower share price retards operational progress and postpones drug approvals.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Thanks Alan.  There is certainly more than enough upcoming events that have the potential to be very supportive.  We should probably assume that the shorts will learn about anything from the govt before the market does, and even perhaps than OMER does. 

It would be good to know if the shorts are willing to burn their profits to mute a rise even if there is sufficient broader support, both through awareness and analyst upgrades, to prevent or limit a plunge that shorts try to create by selling.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

That guy seems to be trying to make money, rather than actively seeking to hurt the company.  I can't fault a small investor to finding a pattern and exploiting it.  If the large institutional shorts are actually playing this same game then they are mostly traders it seems.

At the end of the day, it is really up to the company to present a story compelling enough to get folks, small and huge, to see advantage in investing and holding the shares because the company is poised to steadily grow. 

Hopefully omidria takes financing risk off the table, and narso brings not only steady growth, but potentially explosive growth, which should capture the markets attention.  The very point that this guy think the market reflects actual value is provably wrong in so many ways, but for every Tesla, there are probably 5 unknown companies on the verge of great growth that no one has heard of, and where the trading pattern does not reflect this.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I agree he is not one of the Fidelity gang.
He is not manipulating the stock.
He is not purposely intimidating players who might oppose them... or compete with them, not are they paying bashers and reporters and possibly CMS employees.

But he is intellectually dishonest.
And obviously you can't excuse him by saying he is stupid. 

Traders who sell a move higher help limit the height and add to the decline of the price... and are part of teaching shareholders or potential shareholders that this stock is successfully controlled by shorts, & NOT responsive to fundamental developments.

An honest person admits this and says it is more important for me to make money in the short-term, repeatedly, if possible, than to be a long term investor. I'd guess he is happy to lend his shares to the shorts if he gets paid for it too.

Perhaps he'd break someone's arm for the right price, because certainly he'd say... If I don't trade OMER, others will any, so I may as well be the one making money. This is the same as someone in a demonstration breaking a store window to steal TVs, because if HE didn't do it, someone else would, and HE wouldn't get a TV. They were going to be stolen, anyway, right?

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

That is basically the definition of a stock trader, or perhaps a stock traitor...

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

big_smile tongue

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Geeeeez!

So anybody who trades a portion of their OMER holdings to harvest some profits from its ups and downs is is an a-hole????

I did that years ago. Did VERY well. (Blocked Fido from loaning my shares.)

Not feeling ashamed, nor critical of the current dude's OMER trading.

Have a good weekend everybody!

110

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

That's not what I said, if you are referring to what I posted Bill. If what I wrote gave that impression, then I expressed myself poorly.

What I said, or meant to say, was that those who do it and assert they are doing no harm to the cause of Omeros are swayed by self-interest to ignore the reality.

I have sold and repurchased Omeros, myself for number of reasons over the years I've held it. I traded the options as well.

I have also written about how it is emotionally difficult to see the stock lose almost every gain UNLESS you are awaiting lower prices to buy more stock. At a certain point, given how often OMER's price is pounded after a rise, an investor owns more than the amount of shares they should prudently hold. The logical move would be to sell some "trading shares" on a rise and then buy them back on a decline.

This is very viable for an individual but deters longterm price appreciation in the stock, causes increased dilution, and slower fundamental progress because of a chronic shortage of funds.

There are lots of situations in which maximizing personal gain is detrimental to group well-being. The purposeful market manipulation of the institutional shorts has trained Omeros shareholders that they can change their pain (on a price decline) to a gain, by fading every rise.

This obviously (to me anyway) helps the shorts and, logic alone tells us that it therefore hurts the Longs in the aggregate & the company.

Do you disagree with the reasoning?

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Brett playing it safe and selling $15 calls on stock-holding. Why he says options are liquid, I can only wonder, unless he thinks that is you can sell at the bid, it means liquidity...

for the whole article, including the illustrations lifted from the OMER website and presentations, go to SeekingAlpha Omeros page and load the article before they put it behind a paywall.
======================

Omeros: Ending 2020 On Some High Notes
Dec. 5, 2020 10:38 AM ET | About: Omeros Corporation (OMER)
Bret Jensen   
Bret Jensen
The Biotech Forum
Finding tomorrow's big winners in the lucrative biotech sector
Summary
Omeros, like so many small biotech firms, had myriad challenges in the surreal year of 2020.

However, the company is ending the year on some high notes as it has executed a capital raise, completed a BLA submission and received restoration of pass-through status for Omidria.

We update our investment thesis on this promising but high beta small-cap concern in the paragraphs below.

I do much more than just articles at The Biotech Forum: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Get started today »

We have not revisited Omeros (OMER) since mid-July. The stock trades pretty much at the same levels as our last piece. However, the company has seen several positives since our last look at this promising biotech concern which shareholders have not been rewarded for yet. The company does seem to be heading into the close of this surreal year on several high notes. We update our investment thesis on Omeros in the paragraphs below.

Company Overview:
Omeros is based out of Seattle. The stock currently trades just over $14.00 a share and sports a market cap of approximately of just under $875 million. The company's product portfolio consists largely of two assets. One of which is an approved product and the other a late stage drug candidate targeting numerous rare disease indications.

Omidria is approved to prevent miosis in cataract surgery and to reduce postoperative pain. The compound reduces the need for opioids, pupil-expansion devices and postoperative steroids. Omidria has been on the market for several years.



Source: Company Presentation

OMS721 or Narsoplimab is a potential late stage blockbuster targeting five indications. The company also has several stage compounds in development that are not germane for this analysis.

Recent Events:


The stock had a huge spike in early August as can be seen above. The rally was triggered by early stage positive results from a compassionate use study evaluating narsoplimab in severely ill COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome that required mechanical ventilation. Given the scores of companies targeting COVID-19 as well as new vaccines on the horizon, I place little value on these efforts currently.

However, the company was smart in using the big rally in the stock to address its funding needs by raising nearly $300 million via a secondary and convertible debt offering. Convertible debt (at conversion price of $18.49 a share) was approximately 70% of the capital raise. Around $125 million of the convertible debt offering was used to pay off existing debt obligations.

On November 9th, Omeros reported third-quarter results that exceeded expectations both on a top and bottom line basis. Revenues for the third quarter of 2020 from Omidria were $26.1 million. The company had to incorporate an $8.7 million deduction as a return reserve associated with the expiration of pass-through reimbursement for Omidria that took effect on October 1st.

That important pass-through status was restored this week and will boost the stock nicely in trading this week. Specifically, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, ruled that Omidria qualifies as a non-opioid pain management drug that functions as a surgical supply. This means that Omeros' drug will be excluded from packaging under the ambulatory surgical center payment system for 2021. This is important as over 40% of sales are reimbursed this way.



Source: Company Presentation

More importantly for the long-term value of the company was the company's completion of a rolling BLA submission for narsoplimab for the treatment of a complication associated with stem cell transplantation or HSCT-TMA on November 18th. This biologic has received breakthrough therapy designation and orphan drug designation for this indication.



Source: Company Presentation

Balance Sheet & Analyst Commentary:
Omeros is very much a battleground stock among the analyst community. Maxim Group did lift its price target to $25 from $20 this week on news around Omidria's pass-through status. Maxim's analyst is maintaining his Buy rating and notes the CMS decision 'marks a significant event for Omeros, as Omidria is the cash engine for the company.'

On October 20th, BAML initiated the shares with a Buy rating and $21 price target. The analyst there notes:

"The company offers "meaningful potential in the pipeline beyond currently marketed Omidria", adding that while investors are focusing on its quarterly fluctuations, from a long-term standpoint, Omeros' pipeline dwarfs Omidria. The analyst further states that the company's "unique MASP-2 platform" has flown under the radar because Omeros holds sole rights to the ability to target this portion of the complement system."

H.C. Wainwright reissued its Buy rating and Street high $32 price target on OMER just under two weeks ago. It should be noted both Wedbush ($13 price target) and Needham maintained their Hold ratings on Omeros this week.

The company ended the third quarter with just over $150 million of cash, equivalents and short-term investments on its balance sheet as well as accounts receivable of over $35 million.

Verdict:
The stock of Omeros has bounced up and down this year, but the company is ending 2020 on some high notes and 2021 could well be an inflection year. OMS721 should have its completed BLA accepted by the FDA in the first part of next year and, if all goes well, will be approved for this indication by year-end 2021.

Hopefully, this will the first of several indications this compound will be approved for. Omidria is a nice asset and continued sales growth will help reduce the cash burn for the company. However, peak sales are probably around $125 million for Omidria. OMS721 will determine the company's long-term future.

While speculative, I still like Omeros' risk/reward profile. I am largely using covered call positions in this name using $15 call strikes of various duration. I am doing so for the following reasons.

A. I think the overall market is overbought here and due for a pullback.

B. The options on Omeros are liquid and lucrative.

C. Developmental timelines for this company always seem to take longer than initially envisioned. This is a key reason analysts are mixed on this name.

D. This strategy has worked well for me in this name over the past couple of years.

Bret Jensen is the Founder of and authors articles for the Biotech Forum, Busted IPO Forum, and Insiders Forum

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I agree with your reasoning that OMER trading of the type described helps blunt rises.

But I think it's fair to  harvest some gains by trading a fraction of one's long term holdings.

I don't think it reflects being as evil or dishonest as an arm breaker or looter.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

The way of reality is, in some ways at least, a zero sum game. If the Japanese love Alaskan salmon and buy up whatever they can get, they raise the price for Americans.

The Japanese don't worry about this.
Fishermen may welcome this.
Americans who find the salmon price too high are hurt or inconvenienced by this.

We all make similar decisions every day without thought to what our decisions to pursue self-interest mean for the group (as large or small as it may be) as a whole.

The Omeros traders, in the aggregate deter price rises and tend to also limit the amount of subsequent decline (presuming bargain hunting kicks in).

IMO the big picture would be better for the Company without traders and shorts. The shorts enable the traders.

I can change my subjective judgment by making a lot of money trading. It is easier for me to be patient if I can be making money while I wait.

The other argument that you are quoting out of context, is the idea that, if I forego trading profits to help the company... other people will still trade, resulting in no significant difference in the harm that comes to the company.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Analysts Just Published A Bright New Outlook For Omeros Corporation's (NASDAQ:OMER)
Simply Wall St
Sat, December 5, 2020, 2:43 AM EST·3 min read
Celebrations may be in order for Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ:OMER) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 20% to US$14.09 in the last 7 days. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.

Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Omeros' six analysts is for revenues of US$121m in 2021, which would reflect a substantial 25% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 27% to US$1.74. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$96m and losses of US$2.11 per share in 2021. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Omeros
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmac … mer/omeros

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$25.00, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Omeros, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$34.00 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Omeros' revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 25% increase next year well below the historical 32% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.8% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Omeros is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for next year, reflecting increased optimism around Omeros' prospects. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Omeros could be a good candidate for more research.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Omeros analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I will take any bright new outlook for Omeros Corporation, published publicly.  However, there really isn't much substance to the above report, in my view.  This sentence certainly caught my eye - "We would highlight that Omeros' revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 25% increase next year well below the historical 32% p.a. growth over the last five years."  Omidria has just received unbundled, separate payment, and Narsoplimab is on the cusp of approval, and they're saying that OMER revenue growth is expected to slow?  Is that true?

This seemed to be computer-speak to me, but perhaps I am wrong about that.....

116

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Yes, I believe the "report" was written by a computer that has no actual judgment.

It only compares numbers and writes set things depending on how the numbers are changing historically, and such things as analyst estimates.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

117

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

It takes a human to recognize a computer.....but I have no problem believing that in the future, robots may well be far far superior to humans in both physical strength and endurance, and mental faculties.  IOW, I can see humans building robots a la Asimov.....

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Along those lines Avi, I recently read a 2013 book by James Barrat ........

"Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era ..... OUR FINAL INVENTION"

Very clear title and unsurprising writing, to me.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

When JPM and BAC did the financing, I wondered why OMER did more Notes AND paid the old ones off. I figured it was because Cantor wanted this and Cantor did the original Notes, selling to their Hedge Fund (often shark) investors.

Subsequent discussion with Greg suggested to me that the Underwriters did in fact want the financing to be structured with new notes with proceeds to be partly used to retire old Notes and that this was NOT necessarily what Omeros wanted, but when JPM and BAC want to do the financing in a certain why, and you are a minnow in their pond, you try to be accommodating.   

Cantor of course was not the lead and I wondered how Cantor got the leverage to convince JPM and BAC. But I had no idea and Greg implied it was part of the overall deal proposed by the 2 Big lead underwriters.

But now that I see the information from a European Omeros shareholder, below, I see that JPM (potentially in addition to Cantor and others) had or was planning on owning OMER Notes.

Of course, we do not know whether the Hedge Fund is short the underlying shares of OMER stock... but I can imagine that, if/when JPM is going to come out with a positive analyst report, if Highbridge was short the underlying, they might cover FIRST, and making very good money.

This interesting information also may relate to the Capped Call purchase from RBC, because JPM and Highbridge would make lot of money if the Capped Call got to the cap and was paid out by RBC to OMER, who'd then retire a lot of the notes at a huge capital gain for the Note holders.

I was just looking at funds holding OMER and saw something that caught my attention. Maybe someone here can explain what it means?

According to holdings channel, a Hedge Fund called Highbridge Capital Management LLC as of Q3 holds OMER bonds worth $52.404.000, a quite substantial amount. Since this was new to me, I looked up Highbridge Capital and found that this is a fund which was purchased by JPM in 2019.

Now, the latest offering was done via JPM and BoA.

Wikipedia says: "Highbridge Capital Management
Highbridge Capital Management, LLC
Type    Subsidiary
Industry    Hedge fund
Founded    1992
Founders    Glenn Dubin
Henry Swieca
Headquarters    277 Park Avenue
New York, New York, United States
AUM    $3.9 billion
Owner    JPMorgan Chase
Number of employees    300
Website    www.highbridge.com
Highbridge Capital Management, LLC is a multi-strategy alternative investment management firm founded by Glenn Dubin and Henry Swieca in 1992.[1] In 2004, it was purchased by JPMorgan Chase; as of 2019, it had about $3.9 billion in assets under management, out of $150 billion in JPMorgan's global alternatives division.[2]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highbridg … Management

On their website they say

Founded in 1992, Highbridge Capital Management is a global alternative investment firm offering credit and volatility focused solutions across a range of liquidity and investment profiles, including hedge funds, drawdown vehicles and co-investments. The firm seeks to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for sophisticated investors, which include financial institutions, public and corporate pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and family offices.

Highbridge is headquartered in New York, with a research presence in London.

In 2004 Highbridge established a strategic partnership with J.P. Morgan.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Talk about trading Omeros... you can use options.
The other side of the option trade, when a market maker at least, will hedge...making the net change in the OMER float neutral.

Someone, who never seemed very sophisticated, on ST posted the below order:
https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_261906396.png

This is an interesting trade:

Naked short a $17 put that expires in 2023 and put $9 in your pocket. For 10 contracts, that is $9000.00

If the stock is at or higher than $17 at that time, you pocket the $9k. And as long as the stock is higher than $8 at expiration, you make a profit (but you will have to buy the shares at $17 (and then sell them to realize the profit). Since it is a NAKED short you will have to have (about) 30% of the OMER price in collateral in the account to cover the trade. So if OMER was $15, you'd need $4500 collateral to make that $9000 (basically a 100% profit in 2 years). The real collateral will be less because it is reduced by the % out-of-the-money, with a minimum rate of 10%. With the stock at $14, the $17 strike price is more than 20% above $14, so only the 10% collateral is required. To open the 10 contract trade, you only need $1400 collateral to potentially earn that $9000 in ~2 years.
Sounds attractive.
The buyer, perhaps wanting to go short, maybe only to trade (which is not smart because this far-out OTM puts are not liquid enough to trade because of the wide spread) would think OMER was going to plunge under $8.

I guess the Market could collapse and it could happen, but paying $9 per share to carry a disaster bet like that is very foolish. So, it is likely the MM takes the other side of the bet.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Thanks for sending the Maxim report.  I noted 2 things.  First, they said they do not expect Omidria to ever lose its new status, assuming no changes in the law.  That's good.  At least, it's good to hear - who knows what changes may take place in the future.  Second, they mentioned an increasing use of Narsoplimab re Covid-19.  That's real good.....

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I missed the part where they gave the impression that there was a lot of Covid activity, Avi

Cost of Narso:
I see Maxim predicting $122M in 2021 Omidria Rev and in prior years, COGS was 1%, so in 2021, Omidria cost to OMER will be ~$1.22 million.

In 2021. Maxim says there will be $88M narso revenue and total COGS will be 25.183M, so COGS for narsoplimab would be $24 million (after subtracting Omidria 221 cost of $1.22M).

This suggests a Gross margin for narso would be between 70% and 75%. That is about the average for Major Pharma.

IOW if OMER charges $200k for treatment for TA-TMA, the Narso will cost the company at least $50k according to the assumptions of the Maim analyst, who could easily be wrong, but is probably in the ball park.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

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Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

There was a sentence in there, Alan.  "including further development in Covid-19."

Conclusion. Securing separate payment for Omidria is a significant positive
for Omeros. Though we still see narsoplimab as the long-term value driver
for the company, Omidria should now continue to, in part, offset opex
as narsoplimab moves towards potential approval and pipeline programs
expand, including further development in COVID-19. We are increasing
estimates for 4Q20 and 2021 and raising our PT to $25, from $20. OMER shares
are up ~20% in the pre-market. Reiterate Buy.

124

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I saw the words, Avi.
I just did not find them at all revealing.
We know Omeros is making some narso available for compassionate use. I saw no hint of a trial, for example, even though Greg said he was interested in doing more at Bergamo. We don't know that he is.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

125

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

OMEROS REVENUE GUIDANCE from the 10Q

Looks to me that if there is no deal to bring narso to the FDA for CV19 approval, Omeros plans on selling it off-label for whatever a doctor prescribes.... including for Covid.

There are other interesting tidbits in this quote, as well:

We anticipate narsoplimab for HSCT-TMA will receive FDA approval and will launch in early to mid-2021. Currently we cannot fully predict the timing or the magnitude of narsoplimab revenues, but we believe they will be significant.

In Europe, EMA has confirmed narsoplimab’s eligibility for EMA’s centralized review of a single MAA that, if approved, authorizes the product to be marketed in all EU member states and EEA countries. We are targeting to complete our MAA submission in 2021.

Following treatment of the initial six patients under the compassionate use study in Italy, we have continued compassionate-use treatment in the U.S. and Italy. Our discussions regarding the use of narsoplimab in COVID-19 have progressed with leaders across various government agencies. We have also received requests and are in discussions to include narsoplimab in platform trials for COVID-19.

We expect the majority of our research and development expenses for the remainder of 2020 to be related to our narsoplimab and MASP-3 programs. We expect overall research and development costs in the fourth quarter 2020 to increase slightly from current levels as we manufacture additional drug substance and expand our disease awareness activities in preparation for the anticipated U.S. commercial launch of narsoplimab in HSCT-TMA. These increases will be partially offset by the absence of technology license agreement costs in the fourth quarter of 2020.

We plan to continue to fund our operations for at least the next twelve months with our cash and investments on hand, from sales of OMIDRIA and, if FDA approval is granted, from sales of narsoplimab for HSCT-TMA. There is also that possibility that narsoplimab will generate revenues in the treatment of COVID-19.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

126

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Another positive SA article.
Is this an indicator?

The only thing that appears interesting is that the author says BTD was granted for treatment AND PREVENTION. I have not verified that.

OMER is not really seeking approval for prevention, or even treatment for mild TA-TMA. They targeted severe, life threatening TMA. If the doctors are allowed by Medicare or Insurers they will start to use it earlier and earlier instead of waiting for mild TMA to become severe and terminal. Can an infusion of narso PREVENT TMA? Probably. Will insurers pay to treat 2 to 3 times the people, earlier, even before they show signs of TMA?

Probably depends on cost-benefit analysis.

This is very related to Narso in CV19.
Can Narso given earlier eliminate progression to a severe case... just like it seems to prevent sequelae in treating people with severe Covid?

If you want to see the illustrations you have to go to the site before they put it behind a pay wall:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/439375 … dy-to-pick
===================
Omeros: A Ripening Fruit Ready To Pick
Dec. 9, 2020 4:02 AM ET|2 comments  | About: Omeros Corporation (OMER)
Biotech Spectator   
Deep Value, Biotech, long-term horizon, Growth
(273 followers)

Summary
Omeros is unique. It's different from other clinical-stage biotechs in that it has an FDA-approved drug (Omidria) in the market generating revenue to fund ongoing clinical developments.

Now, the Omidria reimbursement overhang is gone after CMS confirmed a separate payment mechanism, which partially derisked the business.

After years of struggle and almost no return to shareholders, Omeros finally sees the light at the end of the tunnel.

The submitted narsoplimab BLA and upcoming approval could provide much higher upside potential.

Omeros (OMER) has been in my watch list for many years - since the initial investors' excitement about the FDA approval of Omidria and projected sales potential. Long-term investors have endured harsh results in their investment, as there has been almost no return. However, the fundamentals for Omeros have substantially changed recently due to the following facts, and now, it is a company worth considering.

Omidria - Continuous revenue to fund Omeros' operations
Omidria is the first and only approved drug both in the US and in Europe to prevent miosis in cataract surgery and to reduce postoperative pain. The drug was widely welcomed by eye surgeons because it reduces the risk of complications during and after surgery and the legal risk on compounding. There are so many eye doctors being enthusiastic about this drug. Interested investors can look up some videos on YouTube about their personal experience using the drug. Its value to eye doctors cannot be understated. On the insurance payers' side, however, not so much - possibly due to its cost. In recent years, Omidria revenue had experienced decent growth quarter by quarter, clearly proving its clinical benefits and growing demand from eye physicians. However, that growth had been disrupted by the setbacks in CMS reimbursement (see graph below).

Omidria historic quarterly revenue trend (complied from Omeros quarterly earnings reports)

Omidria quarterly revenue since launch based on Omeros quarterly reports

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has just confirmed separate payment in ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) for Omidria. Now, the overhang of Omidria is gone. Omidria will continue to grow revenue and fund its ongoing operations. Therefore, Omeros is partially derisked. The stock price jumped to over $14 right after the news (chart below). This will likely be a gap-up breakaway rally to over $30 considering investors are anticipating FDA decision on the company's recently submitted BLA on narsoplimab (formerly OMS721), a potential blockbuster orphan drug (discussion below).



Weighing on narsoplimab's upcoming FDA decision
Omeros has a deep pipeline of products in development, but I will ignore early clinical candidates and only consider the drug at the most advanced stage - narsoplimab - just to be less speculative. Long-time investors of Omeros are very familiar with narsoplimab (formerly OMS721). The company has spent many years and tens of million dollars developing this drug, mainly for indications in hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated TMA (HSCT-TMA), IgA nephropathy (IgAN) and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). Let's forget about the latter two, since it appears it is taking the management forever to complete phase 3 trials (one of my complaints about this management).

The bright spot here is that Omeros has completed submission of a BLA for the indication of HSCT-TMA. So, an FDA decision will come soon. For this indication, narsoplimab was designated by the FDA as:

1) A breakthrough therapy;

2) Orphan Drug designation for the prevention (inhibition) of complement-mediated TMAs; and

3) Orphan Drug designation for the treatment of HSCT-TMA.

Considering the above, narsoplimab is expected to be on fast-track/priority review by the FDA, and a decision will come soon.

The likelihood of narsoplimab approval is very high
The likelihood of approval is very high because:

1) Late-stage clinical results far exceeded criteria set between Omeros and the FDA. I will not repeat clinical results in this article. Interested investors can dig into the results here.

2) HSCT-TMA is a life-threatening and unmet condition with no existing treatment. The mortality rates in patients who develop severe TMA are in excess of 80%. Therefore, it would be difficult for the FDA not to approve, provided the data is sufficient for its efficacy.

3) Dr. Demopulos (CEO) and his team have successfully brought a developmental candidate (Omidria) to the market. So, experience does matter a lot here, which reduces the chance of FDA setbacks (such as potential FDA requests for more information or re-submission, etc. that often happen to new biotechs).

Potential blockbuster sales of narsoplimab
According to Omeros' own estimate, annual allogeneic HSCT cases are 25,000-30,000 in the US and the EU. The incidence of TMA in this population is approximately 40%. Let's say annual TMA cases are at 10,000. As an orphan drug for a life-threatening condition and due to the similarity, we can use Alexion Pharmaceuticals' (ALXN) hefty price tag for its drug Soliris of $500,000/year as a reference point. On the conservative side, let's put narsoplimab at $200,000/year - that's $2 billion/year in revenue. Remember, narsoplimab was given Orphan Drug designation not only for the treatment of TMA but also for the prevention of it, and the number of patients taking this drug could be far more than 10,000. Based on that, Omeros can easily be a $20 billion company in market cap. The reward-to-risk is highly favorable now.

Current financials
Omeros did a common stock offering recently, and it just ended Q3 with $153.5 million in cash. The risk of near-term dilution is reduced. The company's revenue growth will likely continue. This will further reduce quarterly cash burn.

Final thoughts
After so many years of struggling and investors' frustration over no share price appreciation, Omeros' big moment is likely coming. The FDA's decision on narsoplimab will be the biggest catalyst for the share price in 2021. Omidria has taken the company to this stage and has helped reduce dilution to some extent. Omidria will be the nice sprinkles on the sundae, but the sundae will be narsoplimab. With optimism around Omeros, this author does want to warn investors that FDA decisions are binary events. Considering its risk, it is only worth a portion of your portfolio, but it absolutely deserves a portion, especially for young and risk-tolerant investors.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

127

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

600,000 shares traded at 3:32PM at ~$14.30

128

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Yeah, and very high volume overall.  Looks like someone big is either covering or accumulating

129

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Something is possibly about the be announced... soon, with this kind of volume without news.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

130 (edited by alaskasalmonfisher 2020-12-09 22:08:40)

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

It'd be nice to be an insider.  We'd all follow the law, right?

Also Alan, I'm thinking back to Greg's call, where you said he was a bit different, kept hesitating as if he wanted to tell you something but didn't (couldn't)......

131

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

We know he is working on a variety of things that could be made public if/when they came to fruition. FDA acceptance of the BLA and a likely aware of Priority Review is also pending. Then there is a Covid trial possible or a govt.-related covid announcement.

Then there is NOPAIN possibly being in a compromise Bill in Congress.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

132

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Yes, a variety of things is right.  I was thinking that just 6 months ago we were all going nuts wondering whether/if Narso would be effective against Covid 19, because we hadn't heard one word about it but it seemed logical to think it would be effective.  Then we heard of the 6-person treatment in Italy.  Fits and starts (what else?) after that but here we are now, in pretty good shape I think fundamentally speaking.  Stock price still sucks, but what can we do.  Having Omidria squared away - FINALLY - is nice.

133

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

it's hard to tell from the chart, but it seems like the amount sold from 11am to 3pm isn't that much less than the amount bought in the last hour - so if he is pushing it down with 100 share lots, and then buying back more, its unclear if he is successful at it.

134

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

On my platform it was more obvious on the 1 minute chat. But I can't copy my personal charts to TIPS, regrettably.

Here is a 5 minute that is clearer, I think.
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=OMER&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3942233&style=320&freq=6&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=1&rand=538623613&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

this has been a repetitive pattern although not on ever day... although this week, it happened every day, with the rally starting the latest on Monday. But there was a stronger finish every day.

https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=OMER&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3942233&style=320&freq=6&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=3&rand=385712501&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

The site that give "short volume" has been showing quite high volume lately too.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

135

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Something seems to have gone nuts with that last post....post.....post....

136

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I was wondering if my wife had given me some drugs that I didn't know about.....
Or, it could have been Alan wanting to emphasize that "this has been a repetitive pattern"

137

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

LOL
I presume I made my point!

Boy, that was a lot to erase!

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

138

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

different pattern today and it didn't take much volume to move it higher. FidoFamilyFund bigshots took a long weekend?
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=omer&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3942233&style=320&freq=6&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=1&rand=133967627&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

139

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

2 things

1. Some think closing over $14.50 is a breakout and we are now above the price of the last two secondarilies.

2. The narso CUP program on clinical trials has been changed. You can see the changes, in color, here:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/ … udyPageTop

For those that are too tired to take the trip, they just extended the program for a year and eliminated "other complications" from transplant from the disorders that would be treated within the CUP program. So, nothing significant changed, if you did not have the problems eliminated from the program, and wanted to get treated with narso.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

140

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

AstraZeneca buying Alexion in $39B cash and stock deal
Dec. 12, 2020 8:25 AM ETAlexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN)By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor12 Comments
Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN) owners will receive $60 per share in cash and 2.1243 ADS of AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) for each share of Alexion they own. Based on AZN's recent closing price, that implies a deal value of $39B, or $175 per share. That's about a 45% premium to Alexion's close on Friday.
Alexion's leading expertise in complement biology will accelerate AstraZeneca's growing presence in immunology, say the companies. The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to core earnings.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

141

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I noted the headline in an email to Greg this morning:

Good morning.
I am wondering what your reaction to this is.
Shareholders would certainly want this to be helpful for Omeros.

I have brought up ALXN with Greg before. He doesn't like them but he hasn't really explained the background.

HERE is the deal details:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazen … 00374.html

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

142

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Looks like the Market likes Omeros before the bell.
But I usually see the shorts and traders taking profits by selling once the regular session starts.

Perhaps some of the Funds will leave ALXN and invest in the best deal ever in the complement space; the most undervalued, 'what's its name?'... the one where almost every knows better than the CEO...?

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

143

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I just can't get over how much AZN paid.  I think they got sold the bill of goods.  Premarket has AZN down about 7%.  Should be down more.

144

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

It is not down because of the price paid for ALXN, although there is surely some selling because of that.
There always is.

It is down because institutions and individuals, who own shares, are locking in the deal and/or doing arbitrage by buying ALXN and selling the corresponding AZN that underlies
the deal, which is only $60/share in cash.

Cash+Stock deals always have this happen, because the share to be received in partial payment can decline significantly before deal closing.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

145 (edited by dorcse 2020-12-14 13:27:55)

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I appreciate and understand your point Alan.  My point is that I am confident they grossly overpaid because ALXN will lose significant market share to Omeros in the complement space, likely within a few years.

I assume they bought ALXN for its current revenue and future growth in complement and I think they made a huge mistake.  ALXN is peddling a drug vastly inferior to Narso. I don't think their revenues will hold up, never mind expand.   That is why I believe AZN should be down much more.  They bought a crap asset and obviously the market does not see that, yet.

146

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

I agree with you, Ed.
AZN was considered a crappy company for many years and apparently, with this acquisition and the recent mess they made in the vaccine, they still have problems.

We do have to remember that AZN surely has seen data on ALXN pipeline drugs that may fit what AZN wants and the revenue, even if it will decline, is just the obvious benefit.

OTOH I would NOT want to own AZN, either.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

147

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

posted on IV and ST and originally elsewhere...
**************************************
Narsoplimab (OMS721) the size of the market in patients of each indication estimate
https://seekingalpha.com/article/422336 … shine-2019

'Potential Market Size
On the Q3 earnings conference call, Dr. Demopulos stated that he approximates the market potential for high-risk HSCT-TMA between 6,000 and 9,000 patients. With Orphan Drug Designation and current cost of care running in the millions, OMS721 could reasonably be priced in the $200k to $300k range and not face significant backlash from insurers. Using an average estimate of 7,500 patients at approximately $250,000, the potential market size is $1.9 billion. Given the lack of alternative options, sales growth would likely be quite rapid. In addition, during clinical trials, OMS721 was seen to improve the condition of other endothelial injuries, potentially opening the market to include other conditions such as Graft-vs-Host Disease.

It is harder to estimate potential market size for IgA Nephropathy given that there are approximately 300,000 people between the United States and Europe, not including Asia which has a higher incidence rate. Given that there is no currently approved treatment, there would be ample room for OMS721 to be used in a significant portion of patients. If we assume that only 10% of patients will use OMS721, that leads to approximately 30,000 individuals between the United States and Europe. If we take the same pricing from HSCT-TMA, $250,000, that would yield a potential market of $7.5 billion. Keep in mind that that number does not include the market potential in Asia, and estimates could be significantly higher as the company comes closer to filing for approval.

aHUS would likely have a market potential around $1 billion based on current sales by Soliris and using the previous $250,000 price point. This would likely be the slowest growing indication as Omeros would have to compete against Soliris, which has a much longer history of treatment than OMS721 for aHUS.

Indication

Patient Size

Pricing

Total Value

OMS721: HSCT-TMA

7,500

$250,000

$1.9 Billion

OMS721: IgA Nephropathy

30,000

$250,000

$7.5 Billion

OMS721: aHUS

4,000

$250,000

$1.0 Billion

OMS721: Total



$10.4 Billion



Source: Harrison Tateosian'

--------------------------------------------------------
Omeros' (OMER) CEO Greg Demopulos on Q3 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
https://seekingalpha.com/article/422057 … art=single

Jason McCarthy, Ph.D. Senior Managing Director Biotechnology at Maxim Group

... And then just one quick follow-up if you have the time, as you guys prepare to file in the EU and U.S. for stem cell TMA. Could you talk a little bit about the market sizes for both IgA nephropathy and TMA and the possible launch strategy in TMA?

Greg Demopulos

Sure. Sure, again, we're working to finalize with FDA, agreement around the proposed protocol for our – chart review based historical control. We are preparing, as we noted to submit both BLA and MAA. The markets for stem cell TMA, let's address that one first. There are 20,000 stem cell transplants in the U.S., about 40,000 in Europe, about 40% of allogeneic transplants, we'll have a TMA.

And, if you look at the published data, as much as 80% of those will have some marker or some aspect of high-risk disease. So when we kind of distill all this down, you're sort of across U.S. and Europe, you're talking about an ultra-orphan indication but a reasonably sized ultra-orphan indication of somewhere between 6,000 and 9,000 patients. And again, these are our best guesses. These are very difficult numbers. There aren't – there's no repository of these data.

But that's where we're generally coming out. Again, I reserve the right please to revise that estimate at any time, but I'm telling you what are best guesses are now. The interesting thing is that the cost of management of a TMA patient is high. So there are a couple of sites that of which we've been told that have demonstrated that those numbers are about 3 million to treat a stem cell patient.

When you think about that, the cost for that kind of management and when I say treat, I should actually use the word management because there is no treatment for stem cell TMA. We simply manage the process now. So obviously, we think that there's a significant opportunity for a drug that can take these patients who have severe or high-risk TMA. And in that setting have a very high likelihood of death.

And we get them through that phase and this is not – mostly, this is not commonly are a relapsing issue. So get them through TMA or they're severe TMA. They do well. So we think that there's a clear and significant market for a drug that will achieve that. And we believe that OMS721 achieves just that.

Turning to IgA, in the U.S., the numbers are about 150,000 to 180,000 patients in the U.S. And that's – those are prevalence numbers, not incidents. In Europe, that number is higher. In Asia, that number is higher still. There is some discussion that those numbers may actually be underestimates because again, in IgA there is no treatment. So, given that there's no treatment, there is the propensity to underestimate, how many of those patients are really out there?

Again, the market here we see as large for a drug that can reduce levels of proteinuria as it appears at OMS721 does, the idea would be certain that an OMS721 could well be used in a good proportion or large proportion of those patient numbers that I gave you. There's probably one thing, I should add around the stem cell market. Remember, when we talk about those numbers, we're talking about TMA alone, stem cell TMA alone.

Yet that's an endothelial injury or part of the endothelial injury syndrome, GVHD, veno-occlusive disease, diffuse alveolar hemorrhage all are parts of or component of the endothelial damage syndrome.

In fact, there are patients I think as you know, that we've treated with OMS721 who’ve had concurrent steroid-refractory GVHD. And/or DAH and in those patients, we not only saw a resolution of the TMA, but we saw a resolution of the GVHD and of the DAH. So, this market kind of continues to expand and we're certainly aware of that.

EBMT is ongoing right now, and their discussions I'm told just today around endothelial damage syndrome and, the extent of that potential indication. So, we're about these opportunities.

Jason McCarthy

Alright, thank you. Is definitely a large opportunity there. All right. Thank you for taking my questions and best of luck with everything going forward.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

148

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

As is no surprise OMER is still plagued by the traders and shorts who have been trained to be sure it is risk-free to fade every rise. The TA people are apparently looking to fill a gap to $12.56.

Wouldn't that be fun and totally unjustified.
Only slightly more unjustified that the share price is not over $30 or $40 at this point.

So, if anything, this underlines that the mythical Market is not going to all-of-a-sudden fairly value Omeros' pipeline and revenue... perhaps unless and until there is a sequence of good news items that punish those who think they are shorting at the top... repeatedly.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

149 (edited by Alan Robert Ross 2020-12-15 16:35:40)

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Looks like, if the shorts don't get you and the traders don't get you, the Option Market Marker(s) get you... because they sell you down the river to blunt the rise and keep you from going above $15 on expiration days, which is Friday.

I am thinking that there may be a way to bet that OMER will be under $15 at the close that day. And people who make that bet probably are making it more likely to come true.

Of course, then the FDA could release their decision to accept the BLA and award Priority Review on Friday and screw the MMs and everyone who are short $15 Dec. Calls.

Or at least we can hope that happens.

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.

150

Re: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread

Omeros announced final BLA submission on Nov. 18th.

Friday is options expiration AND 1 month from Submission.

Normally it takes 2 months for a submission to be accepted, but that is not a rolling BLA submission.

I don't have that much data but I have been paying attention to how long it takes to get submission accepted.

The fastest I recall is 1 month.

The Market Makers (and probably the shorts) want the OMER price at $15 or less on Friday.

Wouldn't it be nice if that was the day the FDA announced the BLA was accepted so that the anti-Omeros forces would finally suffer a defeat after spending all week trying to suppress the price?

original content ©2020 to 2021 by Alan Robert Ross
Founder, Trust Intelligence
The foregoing is not investment advice.