Topic: OMEROS (OMER) - Main Corporate Thread
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Funny that good pandemic news on the Moderna vaccine and Omeros still opens up higher, despite the winding down of the pandemic is a negative for OMER. Of course, the Market doesn't believe there is any future part for narsoplimab is Covid (or based on the share price, for much of anything).
Just traders and event-players I presume.
Nice to see OMER making its daily high at the end of the day, in anticipation of tomorrow...or the next day.
There was no manipulated decline today.
And volume was 1 million+
The TA people are now going to be attracted to this stock.
If we can do this all week, we don't want to see a BLA filing PR until the climb levels out.
We are revving up the engines so put on your safety belt, move your trays into the upright position and don't forget that there are flotation devices under your bum and an oxygen mask will drop from above should we loose cabin pressure and start to plunge.
Ms. Chen apparently agrees with Omeros longs.
13-F filing shows Cormorant Asset Management almost doubled their OMER holding to 8.1% of the shares outstanding.
Founder and Portfolio Manager, Cormorant Asset Management
Bihua Chen founded Cormorant Asset Management LLC (“Cormorant”) in 2013 and currently manages investments in public and private biopharmaceutical companies totalling over $900 million. Prior to founding Cormorant, Ms. Chen managed a separately managed account focused on the healthcare sector as a sub-adviser to a large, multi-strategy hedge fund based in New York. During Ms. Chen’s time managing the account (from 2005 through 2010) the account grew from $75 million in assets to $800 million in assets. Prior to that, Ms. Chen was a healthcare analyst/sector portfolio manager for American Express Asset Management Boston. Ms. Chen has also served as a portfolio manager for the Asterion Life Science Fund (2001-2002), and equity analyst/portfolio manager for Bellevue Research (2000-2001) and an equity analyst for Putnam Investments (1998-2000). Ms. Chen obtained an MBA from the Wharton School of Business in 1998 and graduated with a Master of Science, Molecular Biology, from the Graduate School of Biomedical Science at Cornell Medical College in 1994. Ms. Chen also holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Genetics and Genetic Engineering from Fudan University, Shanghai, China, which she received in 1990.
Wasn't Liana's previous note Neutral and $12 price target in September?
Omeros (OMER) Receives a Hold from Wedbush
Brian Anderson- November 16, 2020, 2:56 PM EDT
In a report released today, Liana Moussatos from Wedbush reiterated a Hold rating on Omeros (OMER), with a price target of $13.00. The company’s shares closed last Monday at $11.73.
According to TipRanks.com, Moussatos is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 8.6% and a 50.9% success rate. Moussatos covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Catabasis Pharmaceuticals, Global Blood Therapeutics, and Eiger Biopharmaceuticals.
The word on The Street in general, suggests a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating for Omeros with a $21.50 average price target, which is an 82.0% upside from current levels. In a report issued on November 10, Needham also maintained a Hold rating on the stock.
The company has a one-year high of $25.46 and a one-year low of $8.50. Currently, Omeros has an average volume of 1.03M.
Omeros Corp. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. It engages in the discovery, development, and commercializes of both small-molecule and protein therapeutics for large market. It also offers orphan indications targeting inflammation, coagulopathies, and disorders of the central nervous system. The company was founded by Gregory A. Demopulos and Pamela Pierce Palmer on June 16, 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA
Ms. Chen seems to have multiple qualifications in Biopharma investing. Did you note the Boston connection - I wonder if she's aware of the Fidelity lady suspected of being the primary driver of Omeros shorts.
LOL Liana upgraded the price target!
We need Liana because the more OMER beats consensus revenue and earnings the bigger the pop. Just like an ETF, Consensus Estimates aggregate the conscientious and the lazy.
>235k shares traded in 1 transaction, at the day's high, after the close.
Hopefully a sign of long institutions getting the mm to accumulate during the day to prevent a price spike rather than shorts filling up to sell.
In fact, Fidelity 'Family' Fund has the expertise to do naked shorting and surely if the Fidelity organization is their Prime Broker, they will have priority to find a "borrow" from among the huge clientele of Fido's retail customers.
So if the buyers are shorts, what the transaction says may be that "we are going long".
At least temporarily.
Why not make money going both ways?
For us, to the extent they go both ways, it is better for Omeros.
I think the problem is their market manipulation activities, their hangers-on, their henchmen like AF and lots of bashers, and the way they have:
- scared away so many investors who can see the value
- trained most of the remaining longs to fade every rise, thereby blunting ever persistent rise in Market Cap.
What we could use in the days following the BLA submission is JPM initiating coverage and a some analysts doing upgrades on rating and price target. Then, I hope, comes the Priority Review announcement and the FDA acceptance of the BLA in record time or close, we can hope).
The April 8th 2020 message that Narsoplimab for compassionate use is only available for HSCT-TMA is gone from Omer's website. Makes sense because we were told by Greg on the CCall that it is being used in the USA for CV19. It would be nice if there was some systematic use that could be considered a trial, but he also mentioned a trial in Bergamo.
The shorts or the MM was moving the price down, so I put a low bid in to even off my holdings.
I bid 11.44 which was under the bid. It looked like it might get down that far, but I wanted to lurk there and then change the bid as opportunity showed itself. They started to move it up a little and the high bid moved to 11.48 and ask was 11.52, I move my 2000 to 11.48.
They knew I was a real person because there aren't that many bids more than 10 or 200 share in the course of a day.
As soon as I clicked on the price change, the bid went to 11.52 and the ask to 11.57. IOW, the High Speed Computers saw my order coming and wanted to remain in control, so they moved it up. After a couple of minutes though, they filled me anyway... but they are still shaking the tree. with only 17 minutes left.
I noticed on the yahoo finance site that 560 Dec 15 puts traded, with open interest of only 225. Don't know if it was a buy or a sell, but I'd be surprised in someone wanted to buy protection like that so I assume it was a sell. I didn't see a corresponding trade to indicate a spread, although yahoo data isn't always that reliable.
I see 560 and it looks like it is a sale.
Because for the average customer, trades are at 10 cent increments (above $2 or $3) and the trade was at $3.86 (last bid was $3.80). My broker and some others allow increments of a penny and a $3.86 bid shows publicly at $3.80. IMO there are other bids at $3.80 and someone who wanted the puts anyone would sell and did not want to alert the $3.80 buyer that they had competition would not bid 3.90. They would be more than $3.80 though in case the $3.80 bidder was some typical retail customer.
Looks like it is down to 2 days for the BLA announcement to 'make' guidance... unless Omeros does something unconventional and releases news during the day or after the close.
Spoke too soon Alan. LOL
NEWS IS OUT ON SUBMISSION
Omeros Submits its Biologics License Application to U.S. FDA for Narsoplimab in HSCT-TMA
November 18, 2020 - 9:00 am
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Omeros Corporation (Nasdaq: OMER) announced that it has completed the rolling submission of its Biologics License Application (BLA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for narsoplimab for the treatment of hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA). Narsoplimab targets mannan-binding lectin-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2), the effector enzyme of the lectin pathway of complement, and has received breakthrough therapy designation and orphan drug designation from FDA for HSCT-TMA.
This final portion of the rolling BLA submission, comprised of the BLA's clinical sections, follows the previously submitted chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) and nonclinical sections, which are under review by FDA. The clinical sections are based on previously reported results of the pivotal trial of narsoplimab in HSCT-TMA in which the drug met its primary endpoint and demonstrated similarly strong response across its secondary endpoints.
Omeros has requested priority review for the BLA, and applicable regulations provide FDA up to 60 days to determine the filing and review designation for the application.
About Omeros Corporation
Omeros is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company committed to discovering, developing and commercializing small-molecule and protein therapeutics for large-market and orphan indications targeting inflammation, complement-mediated diseases, disorders of the central nervous system and immune-related diseases, including cancers. Its commercial product OMIDRIA (phenylephrine and ketorolac intraocular solution) 1%/0.3% continues to gain market share in cataract surgery. Omeros' lead MASP-2 inhibitor narsoplimab targets the lectin pathway of complement and is the subject of a rolling biologics license application under review by FDA for the treatment of hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy. Narsoplimab is also in multiple late-stage clinical development programs focused on other complement-mediated disorders, including IgA nephropathy, atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome and COVID-19. Omeros' MASP-3 inhibitor OMS906, which targets the complement system's alternative pathway, recently entered the clinic, and the company's PDE7 inhibitor OMS527 has successfully completed its Phase 1 trial. Omeros' pipeline holds a diverse group of preclinical programs including a novel antibody-generating technology and a proprietary GPCR platform through which it controls 54 new GPCR drug targets and their corresponding compounds. One of these novel targets, GPR174, modulates a new cancer immunity axis recently discovered by Omeros, and the company is advancing small-molecule GPR174 inhibitors. For more information about Omeros and its programs, visit www.omeros.com.
About Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant-associated Thrombotic Microangiopathy
Hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA) is a significant and often lethal complication of stem cell transplantation. This condition is a systemic, multifactorial disorder caused by endothelial cell damage induced by conditioning regimens, immunosuppressant therapies, infection, graft-versus-host disease, and other factors associated with stem cell transplantation. Endothelial damage, which activates the lectin pathway of complement, plays a central role in the development of HSCT-TMA. The condition occurs in both autologous and allogeneic transplants but is more common in the allogeneic population. In the United States and Europe, approximately 25,000 to 30,000 allogeneic transplants are performed annually. Recent reports in both adult and pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplant populations have found an approximately 40-percent incidence of HSCT-TMA, and high-risk features may be present in up to 80 percent of these patients. In severe cases of HSCT-TMA, mortality can exceed 90 percent and, even in those who survive, long-term renal sequalae (e.g., dialysis) are common. There is no approved therapy or standard of care for HSCT-TMA.
Narsoplimab, also known as "OMS721," is an investigational human monoclonal antibody targeting mannan-binding lectin-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2), a novel pro-inflammatory protein target and the effector enzyme of the lectin pathway of complement. Importantly, inhibition of MASP-2 does not appear to interfere with the antibody-dependent classical complement activation pathway, which is a critical component of the acquired immune response to infection. Omeros controls the worldwide rights to MASP-2 and all therapeutics targeting MASP-2.
A biologics license application (BLA) has been submitted to the U.S. FDA for use of narsoplimab in the treatment of hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA), and the drug is in Phase 3 clinical programs for immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). The FDA has granted narsoplimab breakthrough therapy designations for HSCT-TMA and for IgA nephropathy; orphan drug status for the prevention (inhibition) of complement-mediated thrombotic microangiopathies, for the treatment of HSCT-TMA and for the treatment of IgA nephropathy; and fast track designation for the treatment of patients with aHUS. The European Medicines Agency has granted orphan drug designation to narsoplimab for treatment in HSCT and for treatment of primary IgA nephropathy. For additional information regarding narsoplimab and its clinical trials, visit www.omeros.com/narsoplimab.
No market activity since 9:12 so maybe it is halted????
Crappy volume, but the tutes should pile on sooner or later... perhaps after Priority Review is granted. Then JPM initiation. The Acceptance of the BLA.
All COULD be a nice Christmas present.
Early 2021, in Jan. if not this year, IMO.
Retail needs to be bought out and the shorts need to be fried or turned.
Looks like traders bailing, at least temporarily.
I’m sure people are paranoid about the shorts, having been burned so often. I will look to see if they attack and where the price goes, and whether there is steady buying after that.
There should be uncertain but good news flow as you mention. Omidria is still an unknown with respect to CMS decision in Dec, but that could kick things off nicely to the upside with any good news
I have mentioned the OMER email group I am in. One of the instigators is a guy who runs a public Fund. In many ways I think he is naive and a whiner about the usual "failings" of Greg and Omeros. He wrote something today and I am going to share it with you because it illustrates to me how clueless shareholders are, especially because this fellow is a FINRA member and used to run money for the Templeton Funds.
Finally, we have a completed BLA – that took a lot longer than I thought and given the small trial size, it is hard not to wonder about what it might have been that took so long. But, hey, it’s done. Now we wait to see if the FDA finds it acceptable. Given the tone of Greg’s comments recently, it seems he knows it is acceptable and expects a pretty quick approval. I suspect he is right about that and also wonder if it is all tied to covid in some way too.
With people dying at an alarming rate again, many who might be saved by Narso, it is also quite puzzling why the progress has been so slow on getting a EUA on Narso for covid. Safety is not an issue and the need is as great as it can get – why is that also taking a long time? Is it just price? If so, as much as I want to make a ton of money on the stock as a result of TMA approval and commercialization, I think I would forgo that to save a lot of lives. I would love to know what is going on behind the scenes with Narso for covid.
Needham keeps up the negative drumbeat in the attached report. They complain about the trial but clearly the FDA was impressed with the early results and pushed it along – why would the FDA deep-six it now? I suppose it is possible but seems unlikely.
With no news on Omidria when we should have heard by now, a seemingly strange silence around Narso for covid and now the BLA, I wonder if there is not something going on where a deal is being struck involving all of the above (David Balsam gets credit for that theory).
Greg has improved his shareholder communications but I still feel like he could be telling us more. The reason he is not is likely because they are deep in negotiations about some or all of the above.
I started to write something that didn't sound too snarky and that would help him get real, but I have done that, for him and others in the group, repeatedly, and they still ignore that they are obviously not clever enough to figure out what has to be going on, and still will whine that the company should be as foolish as they are... and tell them. But I started replying, and edited it to make is more polite than my first stream-of-consciousness version.
Ever since Omeros came out of the closet, after having suppressed all mention of Covid, Greg has told us he is talking to US agencies to obtain a deal.
I don't understand why you are still wondering.
And I don't understand why you'd have any idea that Greg would reveal his deal goals before closing a deal... especially when he surely has a variety of ways in mind to achieve what he wants.
What we do not know, among other things, is whether Omeros wants an EUA.
That is a fabrication of shareholders (and it ignores logistics and collateral issues).
I also get the impression that you also don't grasp the full implications of the potential problem that Greg is trying to avoid about pricing. Pricing and volume and the average revenue per Covid, TA, IgAN and aHUS patient.
It is possible to charge a price to save covid lives that has a small gross margin, but only with a guarantee of a huge volume sale. Without that, a low Covid price trashes the potential revenue from the other three indications.
I stopped there and did not give details (that I have been writing about for TIPSters, for many months) to explain. Do I want to give them more things to obsess about and what to know about? No, better they remain like "broken records" (I suppose that's now an anachronism) repeating the same phrase over and over.
If any of you do not understand what I was writing about in my abandoned reply, and the implications, you should post questions, so that I can explain or give an example. I am pretty sure that Omeros will not go full speed ahead on CV19 until there is a deal that will be a huge overall benefit to Omeros' revenue. Any successful deal, even one without much revenue benefit will likely be huge, almost incalculable, in terms of PR benefit because success would mean that Omeros and the narso (whatever the trade-name) would become well known virtually over night.
I agree with your approach here Alan, and would not change a thing. I'm going to accept this person as NOT a closet short, but kind of naive given his past/present fiduciary responsibilities and jobs. I've worn this guy's shoes before but threw them away some time ago. Greg is not perfect, we all know that, but he's pretty good and it's the finish line that counts - as long as we're all still alive.
I'm wondering what the people who kept saying the BLA would never be submitted, that is was BS, are saying now. But really, who cares. Doesn't matter.
Most people lie or exaggerate or have an opinion it is to their advantage or because they may like to worry.
This is even the case with the Needham Analyst Serge Belanger and Liana from Wedbush.
IOW, as we know, you cannot take others seriously unless they explain the facts or fantasy that underly what they say, admit the limitations and explain them... and still it is wise to verify things for yourself.
The shorts lie and say things a bad and will get worse because it is to their advantage to convince people that. And the average person may recall a little of what they heard, even if they can't pinpoint the source... much less know if the source is credible.
The number of investors who believe parts of the short thesis and still hold he stock is, regrettably, large.
Alan, I know you have tons of spare time and are looking for something useful and substantial to do. Right? I always have your best interest at heart, you know.
What we need right now is an article entitled, perhaps, The Short Thesis re Omeros - and Why It Is So Wrong. There could be 2 parts to this article. First, an explanation as to how shorts operate, how they play on the psychology of other investors who don't know what truth is, who are subject to manipulation because they don't have the inner strength to fight it, how humans in general are prone to believe something that is repeated over and over again, and I'm sure there are other aspects of shorting stocks in general that apply.
The second part would be rebutting the above general principles as to the Omeros thesis, specifically.
I'll be happy to proofread it.
Much of the above, you have already written about. But it's scattered here and there. If it could be compiled into one place, one article, I think it would be powerful.
The article would be too long a logical for the average reader to finish it!
And much of the material is on the lost Scrolls of Omeros, buried in the tomb of the prior host of the website!
And soon I will have less free time, since we are in the process of taking the final paperwork to allow us to take possession of the Decameron Villa, probably on Dec. 1st....
Omeros jumps 7.5% after completing BLA submission for narsoplimab
Nov. 18, 2020 1:04 PM ET Omeros Corporation (OMER)By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor8
Omeros (NASDAQ:OMER) shares climb 7.5% after the company completes its rolling submission of its Biologics License Application to the FDA for narsoplimab for the treatment of a complication associated with stem cell transplantation.
The company has requested priority review for the BLA, and applicable regulations provide FDA up to 60 days to determine the filing and review designation for the application.
If the stock's advance stays at that level, it will be Omeros's largest rise since Aug. 10, when it reported positive results from a compassionate use study evaluating narsoplimab in severely ill COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation.
The BLA is for the use of narsoplimab in treating hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA).
Narsoplimab targets mannan-binding lectin-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2), the effector enzyme of the lectin pathway of complement, and has received breakthrough therapy designation and orphan drug designation from FDA for HSCT-TMA.
The Lost Scrolls of Omeros - wasn't that one of those Indiana Jones movies?
Regarding the Needham analysts that came out with a bad review of Omeros, one of them used to work at Alexion.
Direct connection uncovered between Alexion and Needham, specifically to the analysts, or shall we call them shills, who are covering $OMER for Needham. In case you didn't know, on November 11th, Needham published an absolutely disingenuous and dishonest 6 page report on Omeros. The analysts on the report are named SERGE BELANGER and TIAN SUN, PHARMD. I'm sure you've heard them on the conference calls before.
I swiftly discovered that Tian Sun has previously been involved with Alexion. What a small world? Not an accident in the least!
My friend in Italy says that the Tian Sun working for Needham is not the same one who interned at Alexion.
So it must be that Needham is in service to the shorts... or it indicates they think most of what Greg says about the FDA and its view of narsoplimab is just a bunch of bald-face lies that the FDA is ignoring... and that Omeros has supposedly submitted 28 Phase 2 single arm trial patients in a BLA that FDA will never even accept.
Actually, if that would be true, why wouldn't the Needham rating be SELL with a Price Target of zero?
Obviously you cannot expect rationality and consistency from Sell-Side analysts because they support the cause of the Brokerage, not the cause of truth and the interests of their customers.
I have long thought that there is an organized conspiracy against Omeros. (I hope this doesn't make me a Trumpster). This stock is obviously too controlled by interests who wish to keep the price low, and non-reflective of its true value. It's not just a couple of private person shorts.....
Perhaps you were at the Fish Site when I outlined how the Fidelity Brokerage owners and their top employees have a private Fund that is the big money behind the shorting of Omeros (from all available evidence). The story is that ALXN wanted to buy Omeros for a cheap price and were rebuffed. One of the ALXN promoters, Baker Brothers (also run Funds and have a big stake in ALXN) wanted OMER to divulge non-public information to them in return for "support" and Omeros refused to help them do illegal Insider trading. This developed into Baker's idea to make Omeros its short target and they enlisted FIDO's Fund, who took the plan over and has been running it ever since.
There is only circumstantial evidence, though.
This is why Omeros wants more big institutions to become shareholders, to counter the large amount of money behind the Fidelity Family Fund (FFF). FFF can use the Fiidelity brokerage money, if they choose and they are big enough to intimidate smaller financial firms and get them to cooperate or at least not oppose them.
This is why getting Chase and Bank of America to do an underwriting is so important for Omeros. Each of them is larger and more powerful than FFF, so if they get behind OMER, FFF may go elsewhere or even turn long.
That has NOT happen yet, but it may as narso is approved.
Needham and Wedbush' Liana may be doing such a negative job as part of the wide-ranging short war against OMER. Even AF, headquartered in Boston (like FIDO) and irrationally negative against OMER is thought to be connected to FFF/shorts too.
Again, there is no hard evidence that I know of (although there may be some I do not know about).
Thanks. Let's assume the above is true. I can believe it, you bet. So here's a hypothetical - Narso gets approved and becomes pretty well-known. It changes the pandemic picture for the better. OMER stock goes up, but still does not reflect it's true value in comparison to other companies in the space. Let's say it hangs out around 20, or even 30, as it is hanging around 11-12 now. And it still goes down in the same fashion as it does today, albeit from whatever moderately higher level. At this point, can Greg talk to the SEC about the shorting? Can he get the SEC to even talk to FFF, as in "lay off, or we will look into your dealings really hard." Any chance of that do you think?
You still are much too optimistic.
What proof does Greg have that would stand up in court?
How can he prove a conspiracy?
All he has is circumstantial evidence.
People making money by shorting will STOP when they no longer make money, or when it is easier to make money some other way or with some other stock. Or when they are hurt/punished for tormenting OMER, by someone BIGGER and more powerful than they are.
All right. As you know I have a strong sense of right and wrong. I'm going to try and let this go.
When I started this bout 90 minutes ago, I had just spent 53 minutes on the phone with Greg.
He called me because I had sent him an email on a variety of topics. I have been busy with a variety of things since then that interupted this post. I couldn't take many notes in that long conversation so I will first tell you what was in my email to him that prompted him to call. He has not called this month... maybe for at least a month.
1. mentioning the Roche IL6 drug supposedly has positive results on severe covid patients (after everyone had abandoned thinking IL6 was going to be good). Greg said that all the Big Pharma are trying for govt. money and IL6 is a dead end. He's not concerned that it is a competitor for narso.
2. I sent him some of the data on how fast Gleevec was approved (feb. 27 submission aproved ~May 10th) just so he could see the multiple interim communications that Jim had pointed out to us (which were mentioned in a letter from the FDA that is publicly available).
3. I mentioned that my firstname.lastname@example.org email was suspended, at least temporarily... and that the Omeros share price was still being manipulated.
4. and I asked a question or 2:
Can you tell me whether your effort with narso targets only severe to critical stage CV19 patients at this stage? Or do you have a plan to address sequelae treatment and/or prophylactic treatment to avoid sequelae, as well?
In addition, some of this segued to discussing the shorts, message boards, current-day investors in general, why it is difficult to buy and hold OMER without trading, as well as the recent Needham and the BAC analyst report, including what their totally ridiculous assumptions were, why the made errors or purposely lie, etc. He also asked me to give him a rundown on trading and the manipulation (which led me to cover the trading patterns and activity I have observed on the stock and the options). He even brought up IgAN because of the BAC analyst.
I has assumed he would not answer the explicit questions I sent about Covid, but he cited various times, in his presentations and the Demy online conference with Rambaldi and Perales that there was talk about sequelae.
- point 1 was, as I put it, they would go for severe/critical patients with clearcut primary endpoint of survival. The was confirmed by discussing it alone and in the context of IL6.
- point 2 was that, sure, Dr. Rambaldi covered there were no sequelae in all six, and now, all 7 patients... and that proves narso PREVENTS sequelae, because there wasn't any sequelae when the patients were critical and being treated.
- I added point 2 B and stressed prophylactic use and pointed out that there is a huge mild to moderate Covid market who will be coming down with sequelae and his attitude was narso could treat them because narso was preventative in the severe cases. I said that perhaps you'd need less narso in early stage patients. He kind of agreed and said they were interested in that, but I got an impression that perhaps it wasn't the front-runner. Or perhaps it is just that I didn't think it was one of his priorities, which is why i made the point it could be interesting if you could prevent it with a small amount of narso. I did not have to mention that it is a huge market and could be lucrative AND cost less per patient if it needs much less narso than is needed to save someone on a ventilator.
Bottom line is I am sure they are considering treating existing sequelae and treating severe/critical patients, coincidentally preventing sequelae. IMO, if it takes less narso, they will treat people to prevent sequelae.
We discussed Needham because he didn't read it. I told him that Serge was projecting $84 or $97 million in Omidria revenue in 2021, which is odd, given how negative he is about the company. Logically, for that revenue to be correct, Omidria would not have separate reimbursement but it would be selling relatively well compared to the last loss of Pass Thru, and it implies that his attempt to increases the 55% non-medicare market was a success. He was surprised when I told him that Serge projected zero revenue for narso in 2021 and 2022... citing there was no comparator group, which is irrelevant. We discussed the actions of analysts and I brought up the BAM analyst, whose report also very very bogus, suggesting he did not understand the company or the drugs or both.
We both agreed that the price target and pessimistic assumptions like that OMER would get 5% of the IgAN market were unrealistic. The joint conclusion was that the price target was decided on first and the details were adjusted to ensure the sum of the parts added up to the required number.
I will post this and add to it latter.
Need a break.
Wow. Thanks Alan. There's a difference between the effort you are putting into OMER here, and the effort you put into GWR and PVCT. The difference is, here you are getting results. Thanks again.
Actually, although I am not superstitious, I don't like to see those 3 companies mentioned in the same sentence, Avi.
Smiling here, just read the above. I can understand that. I won't mention that again. Congrats.
It is a valid mention, Avi.
I do tend to try to get deeper insights into management when I own shares in a company over a long time. If you recall, I was involved in peripheral help for the coup to get rid of the late Irvin Eisler at GWR, and in the attempt to take over PVCT and inject equity money instead of allowing Dominic to take over, protect the incompetent and negligent Board, turning Provectus into an insolvent debt-financed basket case that makes very little progress and does it slowly.
In GWR, my contacts was mainly the VP of Exploration. In PVCT, it was Pete, the COO and only non-Founder employee who really did not have power to change things. And now I have moved up to the CEO/COB.
My intent in all the cases is to help the company if I can, so that their success helps TIPSters and me. Let's hope this one pays off and more than over-compensates for the prior disappointments and massive waste of my time spent on my efforts.
Here is an idiotic post by a supposed OMER Long on the IV board (where I have stopped posting because me posting to contradict foolish posts there does not get enough support to justify me spending the time).
MESO sells rights to ARDS/COVID for their drug- should OMER do the same?
MESO sold rights to their existing drug ( for graft vs host disease), that may have activity for ARDS and COVID..
Maybe OMER should do the same for its drug...
They dont have the cash to do it themselves right now and there is a lot of interest in COVID so this may be best time to strike to get best deal..
Seems obvious this person is clueless of where the value is in Omeros, much less the views of management, or the impossibility of selling ONLY the rights for Covid without ruining sales for a whol host of future indications. Greg may project that revenue for HSCT-TMA alone will reach $1Billion, but add IgAN, much less Covid, and the total revenue per years is BillionS (plural).
In our phone call today, discussing the BAC analysts projections, Greg was ranting how ridiculous the analysis of IgAN was. I did not record it but I recall him saying that, if OMER only was approved to treat the high spillers (and that competitors could not do an adequate job treating high spillers) a 40% market penetration instead of 5% would lead to having to set a price target of $120 (or he might have said $125). Of course that would be a 2-yr price target.
And what could you get for narso now when the whole freaking company goes for barely over $700 million at under $12 per share?
BTW, we agreed that the BAM analyst was GIVEN the price target as part of the BAM plan and it was the analyst's job to assume what was ever necessary about operations to justify that target. The idea being that the unrealistically negative/low assumptions would be surpassed in the real world and result in upgrades and price target increases as narso made regulatory and revenue progress.
Zacks, the incompetent computer-algo independent analyst organization has lowered the Omeros rating to HOLD. They have never given Omeros a strong rating. Perhaps I should not consider them as incompetent, given that, if you are only predicting the progress of the stock, not the company, their low opinion of OMER is justified.
More from my conversation with Greg, yesterday.
He said that the "vaccines narrows the patient population" and that this is good. I mayhave mentioned this somewhere or other, already, He considers this a benefit to narsoplimab, I suppose because it will be easier to have higher profit-margin if narso is used for fewer people. In the past few months we have seen serious cases go from an average of about 13,000 in the USA to over 20,000. If each of them occupy high-care beds for 4 weeks, that is 13 turnovers a year, so 130,000 people critically ill per year if serious cases were 10,000. 65,000/yr if 5000 daily rate after an effective vaccine?
I also mentioned Omidria on the call, when I was telling him what was in Serge Belanger's Needham report. I remarked that with Belanger's $87M ish estimate he is not expecting separate payment, but he must be expecting the new marketing plan to be successful. Greg agreed with me that it would be satisfying for him to have to eat his words if/when Omidria got reimbursement. I don't recall why I reiterated that Omidria reimbursement approval would be great, but I do recall that he explicitly echoed my sentiments repeatedly. For all I know he could have been giving me hints, without me being able to decipher them. I recall mentioning this before in relation to the Needham report but without full details.
The only other thanks we reviewed was the short tactics, how I contend their actions makes the few shareholders into traders who ruin stock price progress... and how to stop this, he needs to release good news and follow it with more good news every time the share price stops climbing. He needs to train them that selling to take a profit makes them LOSE profits. We also discussed option trading as one of the things that spurs some shareholders to be overly fixated on a specific date... and how Longs sell puts by MMs sell calls, and that the MM probably want OMER to close below $12 today because they want the calls they sold for this expiration to expire worthless.
I better end this before they cut my power.....
Thanks Alan. I remember all of that very well. There's probably a number of us here that remember it all, very well. We can't do anything about the past. In the present, I think we are on the cusp of something very good. Let's all enjoy it....
Another thing I recalled about the conversation is that Greg (like me and every other biologist/informed person) is expecting continued mutation of the CV19 virus, which will tend to make current vaccines LESS effective.
Like for the flu, new vaccines will have to be developed and people will be getting sick, even if they had the old CV19. CV20 and higher will continue to provide more people that narso will be able to help, in Greg's view, so treating this kind of virus will be a permanent market for narsoplimab.
My Walloon contact (from Flanders in Belgium) tells me that the manipulators closed Omeros 1 cent BELOW long-term resistance, on Friday, keeping is suppressed in the TA downtrend.
Stock TA website lists resistance and strength (higher is more of a barrier in either direction)
resist. 21.32 2
resist. 15.63 8
resist. 14.71 3
resist. 14.13 3
resist. 13.28 2
resist. 12.76 4
resist. 11.45 15
These are usually a function of past trading volume and price at the resistance levels.
IMO the FDA-friendly narrative for OMER, contrary to the shorts and skeptics, will be bolstered if we see the FDA quickly accept the BLA filing (before yearend would be fast because it is under 2 months).
The awarding of Priority Review will be another significant boost to the bullish narrative and will make acceptance probable within 6 to 8 months. If that happens at a time point to support Greg's "EARLY 2021" guidance, it will be the coup de grace for the shorts narrative, not that they will capitulate.
They'd probably hire Rudy Giuliani and ask for a recount.
The fastest example we’ve seen is about 14 weeks. Greg’s timeline seems more optimistic than the typical case, but less optimistic than the best case. Not that he should set expectations to the best case.
Steady positive news should have us move up over time and unexpected news such as cb19 or omidria pass through would hopefully result in step functions to new quantum states
The way I look at the timeline is as follows:
1. Greg errs on the side of nondisclosure
2. Greg knows he has aggravated shareholders with postponed expectations he set
3. Greg knows that you have more control over events that are internal and not dependent on an organization or people you don't control
4. Predicting FDA timelines that are standard are safe
5. Predicting nonstandard FDA timelines that have been communicated in private are not riskier
6. Predicting nonstandard FDA timelines that the FDA has not committed to in private is foolhardy and likely to end in being inaccurate and potentially sacrificing FDA goodwill.
I recall a number of predictions of Priority Review over the past year. And the way II recall them, they have good more confident lately than when it was first predicted. At the beginning it was that Omer would apply and expects to be granted PR and lately it has seemed like OMER is confident that PR will be granted.
From what has happened and considering the yer or so coordination between OMER and FDA since the BTD was awarded, it is almost certain the FDA has outlined the way forward. I presume that, just like the FDA repeated contacts with Novartis, the FDA has had and will have repeated communications leading up to the eventual approval.
I think that Greg has been told the ANTICIPATED TIMELINE by the FDA and that this may have been accelerated by the potential to use narso for CV19, off label, prior to an EUA or some more data that will facilitate an EUA (emergency use authorization) or even another BLA and approval.
I hope that Greg walked back the timeline prediction in the 10Q in belated hope to be more prudent and less bold. I posted my notes on the 10Q on the departed website, so I dont have them, but I do recall that the prediction was more like late H1 or mid-year.
Still,I'd like to find more real cases where FDA gave fast reviews and approvals to other drugs.